dimanche 29 mai 2016

USA : élection, Trump et "la montée inexorable de la droite nationaliste populiste"

29051611:50 - "Le problème est que la direction politique occidentale à l'heure actuelle est trop faible pour lutter contre la montée d'un nouveau genre de politique pour laquelle peut-être la meilleure catégorie taxonomique serait droite nationaliste populiste" écrit The New York Times. 

La bien-pensance new-yorkaise se refuse à comparer Trump à Hitler comme le font certains de ses détracteur plus extrêmistes car il n'a pas, comme Hitler, monté une structure politique particulière pour prendre le pouvoir en réalisant, par exemple, l'équivalent d'une "Nuit de cristal" pour chasser et tuer des musulmans.

Pour cette bien-pensance là, Trump n'est pas un cas propre aux Etats-Unis mais illustre un mouvement qu'il qualifie de "droite nationaliste populiste" qui se développe dans le monde entier y compris en Europe et en France comme l'illustrerait le Front National.

C'est là que cette bien-pensance montre ses limites intellectuelles car, contrairement à ce qu'elle dit, le Front National possède sa propre structure politique mais elle est purement formelle et virtuelle, exclusivement destinée à jouer le jeu faussaire de la démocratie pour piéger ceux qui contestent le système grâce à la loi électorale du 21 Avril, comme nous venons de le constater une nouvelle fois lors des dernières élections présidentielles autrichiennes.

Ceci est tellement vrai que même F Hollande construit toute sa stratégie électorale sur cette loi du 21 Avril en concentrant ses efforts pour éliminer la droite au premier tour de façon à faire automatiquement (et avec le soutien de Martinez) gagner la gauche au second tour.

Avec M Trump, la situation est complètement différente car son projet politique n'est pas d'abuser les gens, comme le fait le Front National, mais de prendre la direction du GOP, en éliminer les néo-cons qui ne le suivent pas, renforcer la position du GOP au Congrés et prendre la Maison Blanche pour avoir toutes les cartes en main. 

La question à laquelle personne, pas même M Trump, ne peut répondre aujourd'hui est de savoir ce que Trump fera une fois à la Maison Blanche, non pas par manque d'idées ou de projet politique mais à cause de la situation de guerre civile qui va s'installer aux Etats-Unis. 

Or, entre le jour où D Trump sera élu et le jour où il prendra effectivement ses fonctions de président, qui va réellement diriger le pays - Trump ou Obama ? - et, donc, qui sera réellement le chef des armées ? 

C'est pourquoi nous avons avancé l'hypothèse que Trump a mis en place un gouvernement frantôme qui est déjà en charge de la direction des Etats-Unis et que la campagne électorale continue uniquement pour ne pas précipiter la guerre civile.

L'ultime question étant de savoir si l'establishment pourrait, avant qu'il ne soit trop tard, c'est à dire avant le 8 Novembre, déclencher une guerre nucléaire en Europe et en Asie du Sud-Est pour bloquer le processus d'arrivée de Trump à la Maison Blanche et maintenir pour cause majeure Obama au pouvoir.
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Rise of Donald Trump Tracks Growing Debate Over Global Fascism

The New York Times, le 28 Mai 2016

Titre et inter-titres E Gaillot pour €calypse News, le 29 Mai 2016


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L'ancien gouverneur William F. Weld du Massachusetts a assimilé le plan d'immigration de Donald J. Trump avec Kristallnacht, la nuit d'horreur en 1938 quand des nazis déchainés ont fracassé les maisons et les entreprises juives en Allemagne et tué des dizaines de Juifs.
WASHINGTON — The comparison was inflammatory, to say the least. Former Gov. William F. Weld of Massachusetts equated Donald J. Trump’s immigration plan with Kristallnacht, the night of horror in 1938 when rampaging Nazis smashed Jewish homes and businesses in Germany and killed scores of Jews.
D'autres adversaires encore plus agressif ont comparé Donald Trump à Hitler et à Mussolini.


But if it was a provocative analogy, it was not a lonely one. Mr. Trump’s campaign has engendered impassioned debate about the nature of his appeal and warnings from critics on the left and the right about the potential rise of fascism in the United States. More strident opponents have likened Mr. Trump to Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini.
(ces) bailleurs de fonds disent qu'il est plus facile de délégitimer son soutien (à Trump) que de reconnaître la colère populaire généralisée contre l'échec des deux parties pour faire face aux défis de la nation.
To supporters, such comparisons are deeply unfair smear tactics used to tar conservatives and scare voters. For a bipartisan establishment whose foundation has been shaken by Mr. Trump’s ascendance, these backers say, it is easier to delegitimize his support than to acknowledge widespread popular anger at the failure of both parties to confront the nation’s challenges.

But the discussion comes as questions are surfacing around the globe about a revival of fascism, generally defined as a governmental system that asserts complete power and emphasizes aggressive nationalism and often racism. In places like Russia and Turkey, leaders like Vladimir V. Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan employ strongman tactics. In Austria, a nationalist candidate came within three-tenths of a percentage point of becoming the first far-right head of state elected in Europe since World War II.

In Hungary, an authoritarian government has clamped down on the news media and erected razor wire fences to keep out migrants. There are worries that Poland may follow suit. Traditional parties in France, Germany, Greece and elsewhere have been challenged by nationalist movements amid an economic crisis and waves of migrants. In Israel, fascism analogies by a former prime minister and a top general have again inflamed the long-running debate about the occupation of Palestinian territories.
Les populistes ont remplacé les luttes entre gauche et droite par une lutte entre les élites cosmopolites et les "de souches" en colère 
“The crash of 2008 showed how globalization creates losers as well as winners,” said Mark Leonard, the director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “In many countries, middle-class wages are stagnant and politics has become a battle over a shrinking pie. Populists have replaced contests between left and right with a struggle between cosmopolitan elites and angry nativists.”
Cette dislocation ne peut pas conduire à une répétition de l'Europe des années 1930 mais elle alimente un débat sur les tendances politiques mondiales (selon) un spectre qui comprend le nationalisme de droite, la démocratie et l'autocratie intolérante populiste

That dislocation may not lead to a repeat of Europe in the 1930s, but it has fueled a debate about global political trends. There is a tendency at times to try to fit current movements into understandable constructs — some refer to terrorist groups in the Middle East as Islamofascists — but scholars say there is a spectrum that includes right-wing nationalism, illiberal democracy and populist autocracy.
Sur le plan mondial, la situation qui affecte de nombreux pays est la stagnation économique et l'arrivée d'immigrants. C'est un double choc que les gouvernements démocratiques ont d'énormes difficultés à concilier
On a world level, the situation that affects many countries is economic stagnation and the arrival of immigrants,” said Robert O. Paxton, a professor emeritus at Columbia University and one of the most prominent scholars of fascism. “That’s a one-two punch that democratic governments are having enormous trouble in meeting.

Mr. Trump dismisses the labels used by those like Mr. Weld, a longtime Republican now mounting a quixotic campaign for vice president as a Libertarian. “I don’t talk about his alcoholism,” Mr. Trump said through a spokeswoman, “so why would he talk about my foolishly perceived fascism? There is nobody less of a fascist than Donald Trump.” (Mr. Weld, who in the 1990s reportedly appeared in public a few times having had too much to drink, declined to respond: “I’ll let that ride.”)

Americans are used to the idea that other countries may be vulnerable to such movements, but while figures like Father Charles Coughlin, the demagogic radio broadcaster, enjoyed wide followings in the 1930s, neither major party has ever nominated anyone quite like Mr. Trump.

“This could be one of those moments that’s quite dangerous and we’ll look back and wonder why we treated it as ho-hum at a time when we could have stopped it,” said Robert Kagan, a scholar at the Brookings Institution known for hawkish internationalism.

Mr. Kagan sounded the alarm this month with a Washington Post op-ed article, “This Is How Fascism Comes to America,” that gained wide attention. “I’ve gotten a lot of positive feedback from conservative Republicans,” he said. “There are a lot of people who agree with this.”
avec M. Trump, ces comparaisons (avec le fascisme) ont débordées des groupes marginaux et sont entrées dans les conversations ordinaires à la fois aux États-Unis et à l'étranger.
Fascist comparisons are not new in American politics. A Google search of “Barack Obama and Nazi” or “George W. Bush and Nazi” produces many images of the last two presidents as swastika-waving fascists. But with Mr. Trump, such comparisons have gone beyond the fringe and entered mainstream conversation both in the United States and abroad.

President Enrique Peña Nieto of Mexico criticized Mr. Trump’s plans to build a wall on the border and to bar Muslims from entering the United States. “That’s the way Mussolini arrived and the way Hitler arrived,” he said. The actor George Clooney called Mr. Trump “a xenophobic fascist.” Louis C. K., the comic, said, “The guy is Hitler.” Eva Schloss, the 87-year-old stepsister of Anne Frank, said Trump “is acting like another Hitler by inciting racism.” It got to the point that his wife, Melania Trump, was prompted to say, “He’s not Hitler.”

Mr. Trump has provided plenty of ammunition for critics. He was slow to denounce the white supremacist David Duke and talked approvingly of beating up protesters. He has praised Mr. Putin and promised to be friends. He would not condemn supporters who launched anti-Semitic blasts at journalists. At one point, Mr. Trump retweeted a Mussolini quote: “It is better to live one day as a lion than 100 years as a sheep.”

Asked by Chuck Todd on the NBC program “Meet the Press” about the retweet, Mr. Trump brushed off the quote’s origin. “I know who said it,” he said. “But what difference does it make whether it’s Mussolini or somebody else?”

“Do you want to be associated with a fascist?” Mr. Todd asked.

“No,” Mr. Trump answered, “I want to be associated with interesting quotes.” He added: “And certainly, hey, it got your attention, didn’t it?”
Les alliés de M. Trump rejettent cette critique comme politiquement motivée et historiquement suspecte
Mr. Trump’s allies dismiss the criticism as politically motivated and historically suspect. The former House speaker Newt Gingrich, who has said he would consider being Mr. Trump’s running mate, said in an interview that he was “deeply offended” by what he called “utterly ignorant” comparisons.
"Trump n'a pas de structure politique comme celle que les fascistes ont fait"
Trump does not have a political structure in the sense that the fascists did,” said Mr. Gingrich, a onetime college professor who earned his doctorate in modern European history. “He doesn’t have the sort of ideology that they did. He has nobody who resembles the brownshirts. This is all just garbage.”

Beyond Hitler and Mussolini, fascism can be hard to define. Since World War II, only fringe figures have overtly identified themselves that way. In modern political discourse, the word is used as an epithet. And even Hitler and Mussolini were elastic in their political philosophies as they came to power; Mussolini started out as a leftist.

Mr. Paxton, the fascism scholar, said he saw similarities and differences in Mr. Trump. His message about an America in decline and his us-against-them pronouncements about immigrants and outsiders echo Europe in the 1930s, Mr. Paxton said. On the other hand, he said, Mr. Trump has hardly created uniformed, violent youth groups. Moreover, fascists believe in strong state control, not get-government-off-your-back individualism and deregulation.

Others caution against comparisons. “I read Kagan’s piece, of course,” said Volker Perthes, the director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, in Berlin. “All the phenomena he describes are raising concerns, but I would still not call Trump or his campaign fascist. Maybe with German and European history in mind, we are a bit more cautious than others in using the label ‘fascism.’”

Mr. Perthes said real fascism requires two more elements — an outright rejection of democracy and a harsher definition of order. Jobbik, the ultraright party in Hungary, would fall into this category, he said, but Norbert Hofer, the far-right candidate who narrowly lost the Austrian presidential vote, and Mr. Trump would not.

Charles Grant, the director of the Center for European Reform, in London, distinguished between far-right nationalist parties like Marine Le Pen’s National Front in France and actual fascism.

“Historically, it means the demonization of minorities within a society to the extent that they feel insecure,” he said. “It means encouraging the use of violence against critics. It means a bellicose foreign policy that may lead to war, to excite a nationalist feeling. It takes xenophobia to extremes. And it is contemptuous of a rules-based liberal order.”

The debate about terminology may ignore the seriousness of the conditions that gave rise to Mr. Trump and his European counterparts. The New York real estate developer has tapped into a deep discontent in a country where many feel left behind while Wall Street banks get bailouts, newcomers take jobs, terrorists threaten innocents and China rises economically at America’s expense.
dans les pays développés et semi-developés émergent un nouveau genre de politique pour laquelle peut-être la meilleure catégorie taxonomique serait droite nationalisme populiste
“It seems to me in developed and semideveloped countries there is emerging a new kind of politics for which maybe the best taxonomic category would be right-wing populist nationalism,” said Stanley Payne, a professor emeritus at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “We are seeing a new kind of phenomenon which is different from what you had” in the 20th century.

Roger Eatwell, a professor at the University of Bath, in England, calls it “illiberal democracy,” a form of government that keeps the trappings of democracy without the reality.
Les élections sont considérées comme importantes pour légitimer des régimes mais au lieu d'imposer un régime de parti, comme dans le passé, les autoritaristes d'aujourd'hui "utilisent une variété de dispositifs pour contrôler et / ou  manipuler les médias et intimider les opposants
Elections are seen as important to legitimizing regimes,” he said, but instead of imposing one-party rule, as in the past, today’s authoritarians “use a variety of devices to control and/or manipulate the media, intimidate opponents” and so on.

Either way, it has found pockets of support on both sides of the Atlantic. Lilia Shevtsova, a political analyst in Moscow, said neo-fascism in liberal societies in the West stems from crisis or dysfunction while in illiberal countries like Russia and Turkey it reflects an attempt to fill the void left by the failure of Western notions to catch on.
Le problème est que la direction politique occidentale à l'heure actuelle est trop faible pour lutter contre la marée
The problem, she added, is that “the Western political leadership at the moment is too weak to fight the tide.”
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J – 7 : ils vont jusqu’à chercher les morts pour trouver des soutiens à Macron

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